Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.93 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.8 | 174.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.2% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 2.78 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 65.2 | 98.5 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.05 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 200.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.7% | 3.46 | 3.40 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 58.9 | 83.5 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.54 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 201.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.5% | 7.2% | 3.31 | 3.53 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 81.1 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.17 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 195.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.64 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 54.3 | 79.9 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 192.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.4% | 3.56 | 3.22 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 52.5 | 79.9 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.29 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 171.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.31 | 3.39 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 52.2 | 73.3 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.79 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 178.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.3% | 3.74 | 3.23 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 47.4 | 72.6 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.52 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 198.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.3% | 3.59 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 52.2 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.56 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 14.4 | 26.5 | 177.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 3.81 | 3.41 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 43.0 | 64.5 |
| 10 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.4 | 167.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 3.50 | 3.43 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 44.4 | 64.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 55.0 | 6 | 0 | 31.6% | 3.8% | 1.80 | 1.93 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 29.1 | 44.8 | 174.0 | 14 | 7 | 29.2% | 5.8% | 2.90 | 2.78 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 65.2 | 98.5 |
| 2 | Luis Castillo | 54.0 | 4 | 5 | 29.0% | 5.0% | 3.33 | 3.05 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 17.4 | 26.2 | 200.0 | 14 | 12 | 26.9% | 6.7% | 3.46 | 3.40 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 58.9 | 83.5 |
| 3 | Corbin Burnes | 53.1 | 3 | 2 | 23.3% | 6.7% | 2.71 | 3.54 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 18.5 | 24.2 | 201.1 | 12 | 9 | 25.5% | 7.2% | 3.31 | 3.53 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 59.4 | 81.1 |
| 4 | Pablo López | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 28.7% | 4.0% | 3.95 | 3.17 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 20.3 | 195.0 | 14 | 10 | 27.5% | 5.8% | 3.64 | 3.32 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 54.3 | 79.9 |
| 5 | George Kirby | 50.0 | 4 | 3 | 25.1% | 2.5% | 3.59 | 2.87 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 14.1 | 23.2 | 192.0 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 3.4% | 3.56 | 3.22 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 52.5 | 79.9 |
| 6 | Framber Valdez | 36.1 | 3 | 1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 2.98 | 3.29 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 12.2 | 17.1 | 171.1 | 13 | 7 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 3.31 | 3.39 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 52.2 | 73.3 |
| 7 | Kevin Gausman | 36.0 | 2 | 3 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 4.99 | 3.79 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 178.0 | 12 | 10 | 27.5% | 6.3% | 3.74 | 3.23 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 47.4 | 72.6 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 58.1 | 3 | 2 | 27.4% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 3.52 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 24.5 | 198.1 | 12 | 8 | 25.4% | 6.3% | 3.59 | 3.62 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 52.2 | 71.6 |
| 9 | Cole Ragans | 56.0 | 3 | 3 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 3.70 | 2.56 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 14.4 | 26.5 | 177.0 | 10 | 10 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 3.81 | 3.41 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 43.0 | 64.5 |
| 10 | Tanner Houck | 58.0 | 3 | 5 | 24.3% | 4.7% | 2.17 | 2.21 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 23.7 | 38.4 | 167.0 | 10 | 12 | 22.7% | 7.1% | 3.50 | 3.43 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 44.4 | 64.3 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 37.1 | 204.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.7% | 6.4% | 3.22 | 3.15 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 66.2 | 96.9 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.94 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.5 | 207.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 3.35 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 57.5 | 90.6 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.55 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 174.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.4% | 3.31 | 3.05 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 60.3 | 88.4 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.34 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 180.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.45 | 3.39 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 55.4 | 77.6 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.70 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.1 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.4% | 3.12 | 3.51 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 57.4 | 76.4 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.28 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 3.11 | 3.37 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 54.8 | 75.5 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 160.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.43 | 3.25 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 52.3 | 74.6 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.57 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 202.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 3.65 | 3.57 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 53.7 | 74.5 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 182.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 7.0% | 3.51 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 52.7 | 72.4 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.23 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 174.1 | 13 | 7 | 26.7% | 6.2% | 3.56 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 50.1 | 71.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Zack Wheeler | 60.1 | 5 | 3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 2.54 | 2.73 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 25.2 | 37.1 | 204.1 | 15 | 9 | 26.7% | 6.4% | 3.22 | 3.15 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 66.2 | 96.9 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 59.0 | 4 | 4 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 3.05 | 2.94 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 28.5 | 207.0 | 13 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.6% | 3.35 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 57.5 | 90.6 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 62.0 | 6 | 2 | 33.8% | 6.7% | 2.90 | 2.55 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 25.1 | 38.6 | 174.0 | 15 | 7 | 32.3% | 7.4% | 3.31 | 3.05 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 60.3 | 88.4 |
| 4 | Dylan Cease | 55.0 | 5 | 3 | 32.7% | 8.2% | 2.45 | 2.34 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 37.5 | 180.0 | 13 | 9 | 29.1% | 9.5% | 3.45 | 3.39 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 55.4 | 77.6 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 59.0 | 8 | 0 | 26.5% | 4.6% | 1.37 | 2.70 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 46.1 | 173.0 | 15 | 6 | 22.6% | 7.4% | 3.12 | 3.51 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 57.4 | 76.4 |
| 6 | Shota Imanaga | 46.1 | 5 | 0 | 27.9% | 4.4% | 0.97 | 2.28 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 28.2 | 39.6 | 165.1 | 12 | 6 | 25.3% | 6.2% | 3.11 | 3.37 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 54.8 | 75.5 |
| 7 | Chris Sale | 49.1 | 6 | 1 | 31.3% | 4.1% | 2.56 | 2.44 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 22.7 | 34.0 | 160.1 | 14 | 7 | 29.5% | 6.1% | 3.43 | 3.25 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 52.3 | 74.6 |
| 8 | Aaron Nola | 58.0 | 5 | 2 | 23.7% | 6.5% | 3.10 | 3.57 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 19.5 | 25.5 | 202.0 | 14 | 9 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 3.65 | 3.57 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 53.7 | 74.5 |
| 9 | Zac Gallen | 44.0 | 5 | 2 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 17.5 | 22.0 | 182.0 | 14 | 8 | 25.1% | 7.0% | 3.51 | 3.53 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 52.7 | 72.4 |
| 10 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 47.1 | 4 | 1 | 27.5% | 5.2% | 3.24 | 3.23 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 15.9 | 22.5 | 174.1 | 13 | 7 | 26.7% | 6.2% | 3.56 | 3.37 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 50.1 | 71.9 |
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